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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model