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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 29

Detroit Lions 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 5-D.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 26 for 3 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model