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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model