Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to TB 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on TB-51-J.Russell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 47. INJURY UPDATE: TB 23-R.Neal, concussion, OUT.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.11 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model