4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 27 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model