Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

(3:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 16 for -9 yards (50-V.Vea). FUMBLES (50-V.Vea) [50-V.Vea], RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at NO 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP