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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(:52) 19-B.Grupe 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.39 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model