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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 38 yards to TB 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model