Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to NO 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 46 for 29 yards (52-K.Britt, 41-K.Kieft). INJURY UPDATE: TB 13-M.Evans, hamstring, OUT.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model