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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill up the middle to TB 39 for 2 yards (54-L.David; 9-J.Tryon).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.71 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model