Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 52 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 15 for 7 yards (49-Z.Wood; 52-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-49-Z.Wood, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model