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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model