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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 18

Houston Texans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model