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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 3-B.Wing punts 50 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.65 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP