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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at HOU 42 for -9 yards (52-J.Greenard). PIT-8-K.Pickett was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.59 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model