Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 85

Houston Texans 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(8:49) 16-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to PIT 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-C.Austin to HOU 46 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model