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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model