Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 13

(:53) 3-B.Wing punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-N.Dell to HOU 22 for 14 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.27 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model