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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 55

Houston Texans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 16-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 15 for 2 yards (19-X.Hutchinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP