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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 3-B.Wing punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP