Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 28
Houston Texans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(7:09) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck [90-T.Watt].
The Three Options
GO
+2.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP
KICK
+0.58 EP
- 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
- 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT
-0.86 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
