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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 20

Houston Texans 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model