Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-B.Wing punts 41 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-N.Dell MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 32. 3-N.Dell to HOU 32 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model