4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 48

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at BUF 17 for -11 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model