4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 31 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model