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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model