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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 16-J.Scott punts 23 yards to LV 36, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model