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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LAC 3 for 19 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP