Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(8:38) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 40 for 1 yard (87-S.Fehoko).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model