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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP