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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LAC 20 for 12 yards (26-A.Samuel, 52-K.Mack).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model