Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 97

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(11:27) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 48, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.61 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 97, worth -6.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model