Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

(2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to LAC 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 28 for 12 yards (5-D.Deablo).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model