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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 7
What Actually Happened
(3:06) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.33 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
