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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 31 for 10 yards (21-A.Davis; 26-B.Echols).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model