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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP