Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 49

New York Jets 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(7:28) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to KC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.14 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

KICK -1.07 EP

33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model