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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP