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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 34

New York Jets 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:30) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.94 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model