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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 24

Detroit Lions 34 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 19 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP