Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 78

Detroit Lions 34 – Green Bay Packers 17

(3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to GB 31, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to DET 35 for 34 yards (46-J.Campbell, 25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.41 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model