Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 27 – Green Bay Packers 17
What Actually Happened
(6:03) 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.25 EP
KICK
+1.98 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
