Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 73

Detroit Lions 27 – Green Bay Packers 11

(1:05) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to GB 34, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-44-M.Rodriguez.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.37 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model