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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 11 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DET 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 9 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model