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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 14

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model