4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 33

Denver Broncos 28 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 16-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model