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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 34 for 8 yards (20-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model