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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 56

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP