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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 55

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP