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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 35 for 28 yards (43-M.Diabate).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model